Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
